Narendra Modi’s upcoming visit to Ukraine represents a significant moment in both Indian and global diplomacy. As the first Indian prime minister to visit Ukraine since its modern formation following the breakup of the Soviet Union, Modi’s trip is laden with historical, political, and strategic implications. This visit, set against the backdrop of the ongoing war between Ukraine and Russia, offers an opportunity for India to recalibrate its foreign policy stance and assert its role as a global player in international diplomacy.
India’s relationship with Ukraine has been relatively subdued since Ukraine became an independent nation in 1991. Historically, India has maintained a cautious and balanced approach in its dealings with Ukraine, largely due to its long-standing and strategic ties with Russia. During the Cold War, India and the Soviet Union enjoyed a close relationship, with the USSR being a key ally to India, providing political, military, and economic support. After the dissolution of the Soviet Union, India was careful to preserve its strong ties with Russia, while also recognizing the independence of the former Soviet republics, including Ukraine. However, India’s interactions with Ukraine were largely limited to economic and cultural exchanges, with the political relationship remaining underdeveloped.
In the years following Ukraine’s independence, India engaged in limited but significant trade with Ukraine, particularly in the defense sector, where Ukraine provided military hardware and technology. In 2022, India exported $743 million to Ukraine, with key products including refined petroleum ($338 million), packaged medicaments ($119 million), and broadcasting equipment ($12.7 million). Over the past five years, India’s exports to Ukraine have grown at an annual rate of 10.6%, rising from $448 million in 2017. Additionally, Ukraine has been a key destination for Indian students, especially in the fields of medicine and engineering, fostering educational and cultural exchanges between the two nations. However, the ongoing conflict between Ukraine and Russia has disrupted these trade flows, posing challenges to the continuation of commercial activities. India’s engagement with Ukraine, particularly in the context of the current conflict, highlights its attempt to diversify its partnerships in Eastern Europe while balancing its broader geopolitical interests.
In contrast, India’s trade with Russia is much larger, with exports reaching $2.88 billion in 2022. The primary exports to Russia include packaged medicaments ($403 million), crustaceans ($120 million), and large flat-rolled stainless steel ($100 million). India has dramatically increased its subsidized oil purchases from Russia, shifting supply lines from the Middle East. Now, 40% of India’s crude oil comes from Russia, up from just 1% before February 24, 2022, making Russia India’s top oil supplier. These purchases have helped India save $10.5 billion.
Despite Western sanctions on Russia following the Ukraine conflict, India has continued to engage economically with Moscow, emphasizing the importance of their strategic partnership.
The ongoing war between Ukraine and Russia has presented a complex challenge for Indian foreign policy. Since the outbreak of the conflict in 2014, following Russia’s annexation of Crimea, India has tried to navigate a delicate balance. On one hand, India has refrained from overtly criticizing Russia, a country with which it shares a deep historical bond and strategic partnership, particularly in the defense sector. On the other hand, India has expressed its support for the territorial integrity and sovereignty of all nations, including Ukraine, in line with its broader principles of non-interference and respect for international law.
Modi’s visit to Ukraine is a bold move that signals India’s intention to play a more active role in global geopolitics. The timing of the visit is particularly significant, as it comes at a moment when the conflict between Ukraine and Russia shows no signs of abating. By visiting Kyiv, Modi is demonstrating India’s commitment to engaging with all relevant parties in the conflict, positioning India as a potential mediator in international disputes. This aligns with India’s broader aspiration to be seen as a responsible global power that can contribute to peace and stability.
Modi’s visit can be seen as an attempt to enhance India’s image on the global stage. As the leader of a major democracy, Modi’s presence in Ukraine, a country that has been fighting for its sovereignty and democratic values against Russian aggression, sends a powerful message of solidarity. This could bolster India’s position in the international community, particularly in forums like the United Nations, where India has consistently advocated for a multipolar world order and greater respect for international norms.
The visit also places India in a delicate position with respect to its relations with the West. While the United States and European Union have been vocal in their support for Ukraine, India has maintained a more neutral stance, calling for dialogue and peaceful resolution to the conflict. Modi’s visit could be interpreted by some Western nations as a shift towards a more pro-Western stance, which could complicate India’s diplomatic engagements with Russia and other countries that are critical of Western policies.
In conclusion, Narendra Modi’s visit to Ukraine is a significant and potentially transformative moment in Indian foreign policy. It underscores India’s willingness to engage with complex global issues and its ambition to play a more active role in international affairs. While the visit offers opportunities to strengthen bilateral ties with Ukraine and enhance India’s global image, it also presents challenges, particularly in managing India’s delicate relationships with Russia and the West. As Modi arrives in Kyiv, the world will be watching closely to see how India navigates this complex diplomatic terrain and what impact this visit will have on the broader geopolitical landscape.
The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect Coverpage’s editorial stance
