Post-Cold War, Russia was considered gone as a superpower. The Ukrainians declared their independence in 1991 following a referendum. This deprived Russia of access to the Baltic Sea and it also lost Crimea. Since then, NATO kept creeping eastwards, violating the spirit of an end of the Cold War truce. The Minsk agreement that had helped ease the earlier crisis was rescinded by Kyiv. If all that was not bad enough, the neo-Nazi militias under the patronage of Kyiv were killing ethnic Russians in great numbers. All these provocations led to a Russian invasion.
Some blame that failed Kyiv’s efforts for a negotiated settlement with Russia due to external interference. The US started cultivating personalities in Ukraine in the 1990s and according to some reports in the last two decades has invested US$ 2 billion.
Washington imposed sanctions on Russia, mainly affecting Europe, especially Germany. Few independent analysts would explain Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine as its desperate effort to break out of the stranglehold by NATO.
The US through a masterly stroke has set back the plans of its potential rivals namely; Europe, Russia, and China – by decades. The Chinese ambitious Belt & Road Project (BRI) has been checked and the Euro is in the death zone.
Russia’s invasion could not achieve its goals of capturing Kyiv and folding Zlensky’s government. After the Kyiv campaign failed, Russian forces devised a new strategy to continue pressure in the Donbas region. Russia as a superpower cannot leave Ukraine without a feather in its cap. That is being denied to it through smart moves by NATO and the supply of high-tech weapons. Ukraine showed unexpected resilience, the West exhibited great cohesion. Further, optimism grew that in future crises, the EU could resist aggression effectively.
Lessons from the war
This war offers a chance to assess plans, assumptions, and outcomes of key events. The main challenge for policymakers remains the risk assessment in an uncertain and complex situation. Its focus should be the prediction of Russian military power, US-Europe politico-military cooperation, the impact of sanctions, and the conflict’s possible spill over to nuclear escalation.
The US overestimated its global power and influence. Its estimations of the Russian military were highly exaggerated, as was international support for sanctions. The sanctions neither changed the Russian policy nor fully isolated Moscow. The war is a reminder that America’s “unipolar moment” is over.
The West got united in face of Russian aggression, but it may not do so in the future. Presently, Putin has refrained from using nuclear weapons, but that is no reason to become complacent about the risks of nuclear escalation. Here are some lessons from the Ukraine war.
Lesson 1 – Predicting our enemy’s and own strength
The exaggeration of the Russian military might, whether planned or miscalculated, proved wrong. The Russian military displayed weakness and ineffectiveness in face of a weak enemy. The West miscalculated every aspect of the Russian forces; size, numbers, and type of weapons. The worst was the estimation of the value of command and control, logistics, civil-military nexus, and other factors.
On paper, Russia appeared large and formidable with newer and modern weapons, yet failed to quickly capture Kyiv and topple its government. Its attacks on the Donbas region were slightly better. Russia’s failures were not confined to its land forces— the navy had lost many ships, including its flagship cruiser the Moskva, and the air force could not establish air superiority.
The West also failed in their estimates of the Ukrainian quick and effective response to invasion and most importantly its will to fight. Probably the analytical models for military effectiveness fail to quantify non-material factors namely; leadership, logistics, and troop morale. There is a tendency in concerned governments to overstate the enemy’s capabilities to get more funds. It is better to evolve effective and realistic models for future conflicts.
Lesson – 2 Pakistan trapped unintentionally
Pakistan supports Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. It has also avoided criticizing Moscow at all international fora and refrained from taking sides with any of the parties in the conflict. The most obvious short-term impact on Pakistan’s already weak economy is that prices of oil, wheat, and corn prices have skyrocketed putting further pressure on forex. Due to a weak economy, Pakistan’s diplomatic and economic options are limited.
Pakistan imported 39% of its wheat for domestic use from Ukraine in 2022. The conflict may also derail initiatives under consideration between Russia and Pakistan as part of the cooperation roadmap 2021-26 that include; the modernization of helicopters, the railway network upgradation, the maintenance of aircraft, support for metallurgy, and the power sector.
The obvious lesson for Pakistan is to find other sources of supply. This is not easy given the prevailing high prices of commodities and our dwindling foreign currency reserves. Pakistan should first bring its house in order by reducing its wastages and then utilize opportunities like currency swaps and differed payments on essential imports from friendly countries.
(File Photo)
Lesson 3 – Holding Firm the Coalition and the US World Leadership
At the onset of the conflict, it appeared that differences among Western countries would be difficult to manage. The possible fault lines could be; disagreement on sanction regimes, settlement of Refugees, and the workability of the international system during the war. The coalition is working and Western countries are supplying equipment to Ukraine, type and nature of equipment are points of disagreement.
This war has highlighted fault lines between the West and the South. Despite media hype, the World, especially the South, is not behind the West. This was visible in voting at UN General Assembly (UNGA) resolutions. Also, statements by some of the leaders from the South were reflective of their thinking of a diplomatic settlement. It was the Global South that is bearing the brunt of the repercussions of the war in terms of energy, economic, food, and human security.
The Indian Minister of External Affairs Subrahmanyam Jaishankar in June 2022 stated, “Europe has to grow out of the mindset that Europe’s problems are the world’s problems but the world’s problems are not Europe’s problems.”
Lesson – 4 The sanctions are a weak policy tool
The sanctions did not have the desired effect on the Russian economy. Sanctions rarely produce policy change, and Russia was uniquely capable of enduring additional economic coercion.
Economic sanctions did hurt. Russia’s GDP in 2022 contracted by about 2.2%, but could grow by 0.3% in 2023 according to the IMF estimates. Inflation is bad (about 12 %). Putin and other Russian elites are doing just fine as Russia has accumulated considerable currency reserves, some held abroad. Its energy and mineral exports have continued. The desired economic isolation has hardly been airtight; several countries continue to trade with Russia. Many countries are suffering from rising costs of food and fuel, mostly caused by the war. The US and the West need to study the sanction regime before slapping it.
Lesson – 5 How to avoid nuclear weapons
The dangers of nuclear escalation are real and growing. The US has been upgrading its economic package and military supplies to Ukraine, this may include some modern nuclear weapons. This is dangerous and could provoke Russia to follow suit. The open nuclear threat by Putin and other Russian leaders has deterred the US from directly being involved in the war. The US game of nuclear brinkmanship is quite dangerous, as a desperate Russia can do the unthinkable. There is a need to reduce pressure and temperature from war theatre to avoid human suffering.
Lesson – 6 Europe has to defend itself
Europe has the means to defend itself. All it needs is willpower and a common strategy. The NATO-European alliance is very much effective as exhibited in Ukraine. With the United States facing serious problems in Asia, and elsewhere, Europe should shoulder its security responsibility. The US is increasingly losing resources in its wars.
The defence spending of the EU is increasing, pointing to the realization of collective security. Across the continent, US arms dominate, and there is little coordination among states on military and defence initiatives. Rather than investing in the European defence industry, the purchase of US weapons increases This war has exposed policy division among European states. It appears for the moment that Europe is content in hiding behind the US in its security matters. With several US commitments across the World, Europe needs to achieve self-reliance in its security.
(File photo)
Lesson – 7 Learning from Ukraine, can China be discouraged from invading Taiwan
The Russian experience in Ukraine may signal China to exercise restraint in Taiwan. The Chinese decision to attack Taiwan will be based on political conditions. Generally, the Chinese watch Russian action and remodel their approach. It can happen in Taiwan.
In the Ukraine conflict, the neighbours cooperated under the NATO umbrella. The US growing alliance with China can restrain it from an invasion. Also, the direct involvement of the US, Japan, and South Korea can make the cost of war very high for all. The Chinese will rely on coastal defences while others combating nations will be cramped on Island or sea-based. All parties must learn from the Ukraine war and avoid future conflict at all costs.
However, if Taiwan formally declares its independence and joins military pact (s), or invites foreign forces, China’s leaders will most likely feel compelled to escalate, regardless of the costs. China will consider it a threat to its sovereignty and territorial integrity
The writer is a retired ambassador and Senior Fellow at the Centre for Policy and Area Studies, Institute of Business Management (IoBM) in Karachi. He can be contacted at hasan.habib@iobm.edu.pk.
The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect Coverpage’s editorial stance
