HomePoliticsJaishankar's Islamabad Visit Stirs Speculation on Thaw

Jaishankar’s Islamabad Visit Stirs Speculation on Thaw

Does Jaishankar's participation in the summit indicate India's openness to diplomatic engagement, despite current reluctance for bilateral talks on issues?

PM Shehbaz Sharif shakes hands with Indian FM Subrahmanyam Jaishankar at the Jinnah Convention Centre for the SCO summit in Islamabad on October 16, 2024. — PID

The Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit held in Islamabad on October 15-16, 2024, brought Indian Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar and Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif face-to-face in a highly anticipated diplomatic encounter. With relations between India and Pakistan having been fraught in recent years, the meetings during the summit marked a significant moment in the complex relationship between the two nuclear-armed neighbors. While expectations for a breakthrough in bilateral relations were low, the interactions between the two leaders have sparked cautious optimism about the possibility of a gradual thaw.

Jaishankar’s visit to Islamabad, the first by a senior Indian official in several years, drew close attention from regional and international observers. While Jaishankar met with Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, both India and Pakistan had ruled out the possibility of any bilateral talks during the SCO summit. Nonetheless, the broader state of India-Pakistan relations remained central to the discussions surrounding the event. The fact that Jaishankar and Sharif engaged in any form of dialogue at all is viewed by many as a step forward, given the longstanding animosity between the two countries.

In the statements issued following the meetings, Jaishankar emphasized India’s commitment to regional cooperation and the fight against terrorism, which has long been a sticking point in relations with Pakistan. “We remain focused on the issues of peace, stability, and the eradication of terrorism in our region,” Jaishankar said. He reiterated India’s position that meaningful dialogue can only take place if Pakistan takes concrete actions to curb cross-border terrorism. However, he also noted that India values its participation in multilateral forums like the SCO, where cooperation between member states is key to addressing regional challenges.

Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, while cautious in his remarks, expressed hope for improving relations with India. “We are open to dialogue, but it must be based on mutual respect and the resolution of core issues, especially Kashmir,” Sharif said in his statement. He added that regional cooperation through platforms like the SCO was essential for the prosperity of South Asia and that Pakistan remained committed to fostering stability in the region. “Peace in the region is in everyone’s interest, and for that, we must address the underlying causes of tension,” Sharif said, signaling Pakistan’s willingness to engage in dialogue under the right circumstances.

The meetings between Jaishankar and Sharif have reignited speculation about whether this could mark the beginning of a slow thaw in relations between the two countries. The Modi government has historically maintained a tough stance on Pakistan, especially after high-profile incidents of conflict in recent years. However, Jaishankar’s participation in the summit and the meetings that followed suggest that India may be willing to engage at a diplomatic level, even if bilateral talks on contentious issues remain off the table for now.

Relations between India and Pakistan have been particularly strained since the February 2019 Pulwama terrorist attack, which killed 40 Indian paramilitary personnel. India blamed Pakistan-based militant group Jaish-e-Mohammed for the attack and retaliated with airstrikes in Balakot, marking the first time since 1971 that Indian fighter jets crossed into Pakistani territory. The subsequent shooting down of an Indian fighter jet by Pakistan escalated tensions further, bringing the two countries to the brink of a military conflict. While direct conflict was averted, diplomatic relations deteriorated significantly.

Tensions were further exacerbated in August 2019 when India revoked Article 370 of its constitution, removing the special status of Jammu and Kashmir. Pakistan condemned the move, viewing it as a violation of international agreements, and responded by downgrading diplomatic ties and suspending trade with India. Imran Khan, Pakistan’s prime minister at the time, vowed to bring international attention to the Kashmir issue and issued several sharp rebukes to India. India, in turn, asserted that the abrogation of Article 370 was an internal matter and accused Pakistan of stoking unrest in the region through its support of militant groups.

Since 2019, the diplomatic freeze between the two countries has shown few signs of thawing, with little to no formal dialogue taking place. The SCO summit, however, provided an opportunity for both sides to engage, albeit under the umbrella of multilateral diplomacy rather than direct bilateral talks.

The impact of domestic politics in both countries has shaped their respective foreign policies, often leading to hardened positions. In India, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has consistently taken a tough stance on Pakistan, emphasizing national security and counterterrorism as key foreign policy objectives. This stance has resonated with Modi’s voter base, which is largely supportive of a strong response to perceived threats from Pakistan. Domestic pressures, including elections and the BJP’s focus on national security, have often left little room for diplomatic outreach.

In Pakistan, domestic politics have also played a significant role in shaping relations with India. With Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif’s government grappling with economic challenges and internal security issues, foreign policy has often been influenced by the need to address these crises. Pakistan’s struggling economy, with inflation at record levels and a severe balance-of-payments crisis, has made it increasingly reliant on international aid and trade. The cessation of trade with India, once a modest but growing part of Pakistan’s economy, has cost the country an estimated $1 billion annually. Resuming trade could provide much-needed relief, but political considerations, particularly the unresolved Kashmir issue, continue to stand in the way.

In the lead-up to the SCO summit, Pakistan’s Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar echoed the sentiments of Shehbaz Sharif, stating that while Pakistan is open to dialogue with India, the core issue of Kashmir must be addressed. “We believe that peace and stability in South Asia hinge on the resolution of longstanding disputes, particularly Kashmir,” Dar said. At the same time, Dar highlighted the importance of regional cooperation through the SCO, noting that economic cooperation and counterterrorism efforts could benefit all member states.

The economic consequences of the strained relations between India and Pakistan have been significant. Before the trade suspension in 2019, bilateral trade between the two countries stood at around $2.6 billion, with India exporting goods worth approximately $2 billion to Pakistan. Since then, trade has come to a standstill, affecting sectors such as textiles, chemicals, and agriculture. While India, with its larger and more diversified economy, has been less affected by the trade freeze, certain industries have felt the loss of access to the Pakistani market. For Pakistan, the economic hit has been more severe, particularly as the country struggles to manage its economic crisis.

The SCO summit also underscored the regional security implications of the India-Pakistan relationship. Both countries are key players in South Asia, and their rivalry has broader implications for regional stability. The presence of external actors like China, a close ally of Pakistan and a key member of the SCO, adds another layer of complexity to the situation. China’s growing influence in the region, combined with India’s strategic partnerships with the United States and other Western powers, continues to shape the security dynamics of South Asia.

As the dust settles from the SCO summit, much of the focus will be on whether the meetings between Jaishankar and Sharif can lead to a sustained engagement between India and Pakistan. While no significant breakthroughs were expected or achieved, the fact that dialogue occurred at all may be a sign that both sides are willing to explore opportunities for reducing tensions, even if substantive progress on contentious issues remains elusive.

The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect Coverpage’s editorial stance.

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