India-Bangladesh relations have entered a new and critical phase following the installation of the post-Hasina interim government led by Nobel Laureate Dr. Muhammad Yunus. This shift marks the end of over a decade of political leadership under Sheikh Hasina, who had cultivated a strong bilateral relationship with India, especially in areas of trade, security, and regional cooperation. The new government, though temporary, has set the stage for potential changes in these key areas. As the interim administration settles in, both India and Bangladesh are navigating a delicate transition, with opportunities for further collaboration as well as challenges stemming from changing political priorities.
The rise of Dr. Muhammad Yunus as the leader of Bangladesh’s interim government has opened the possibility of a new chapter in Bangladesh-Pakistan relations, which have long been strained due to historical tensions. While Sheikh Hasina’s administration took a strong stance against Pakistan, particularly for its role in the 1971 Bangladesh Liberation War, Dr. Yunus’s government might offer an opportunity for resetting relations. This shift became particularly evident when, for the first time in decades, Bangladesh officially commemorated the death anniversary of Pakistan’s founding father, Mohammed Ali Jinnah. This symbolic gesture could be interpreted as a sign of thawing relations between the two nations.
Jinnah, who played a central role in the creation of Pakistan in 1947, is a divisive figure in Bangladesh. For many Bangladeshis, Jinnah represents the beginning of a political era that culminated in the violent liberation struggle of 1971, when Bangladesh gained independence from Pakistan after a brutal war that left deep scars on the collective national memory.
The recent commemoration of Jinnah’s death anniversary in Bangladesh signals a possible departure from the Hasina government’s hardline stance on Pakistan. Dr. Yunus, who is known for his humanitarian work and global advocacy for peace, might view improving relations with Pakistan as a pragmatic step toward fostering regional stability.
The departure of Sheikh Hasina, who had been in power for most of the last 15 years, represents a significant shift in the political landscape of Bangladesh. Under her leadership, the two countries forged closer ties, especially in security and trade. One of the most notable security-related collaborations during the Hasina era was Bangladesh’s cooperation in curbing militancy in India’s northeastern states. Bangladesh, under Hasina, handed over key insurgent leaders to India, including top members of the United Liberation Front of Assam (ULFA), a development that was widely welcomed in New Delhi.
For India, the key question is whether Yunus will continue the security cooperation that was a hallmark of the Hasina government. India has significant interests in maintaining peace along its 4,096-kilometer-long border with Bangladesh, where insurgency and illegal migration have been long-standing issues. A shift in Bangladesh’s internal security policies under the interim government could impact India’s internal security, particularly in border states like Assam, Tripura, and West Bengal.
Trade between India and Bangladesh has also grown substantially under Hasina’s leadership. In 2021, the trade volume between the two countries reached nearly $10 billion, making India Bangladesh’s second-largest trading partner. India exports a wide range of products to Bangladesh, including cotton, automobiles, and machinery, while Bangladesh is a significant exporter of garments, fish, and leather goods to India. The economic ties between the two nations have been facilitated by agreements such as the South Asian Free Trade Area (SAFTA) and various bilateral arrangements that have reduced tariffs and promoted connectivity through rail and road links.
There are concerns that mandate of Dr. Younus’s government may limit its ability to negotiate new trade agreements or implement long-term economic policies. With general elections expected within the next year, India may prefer to wait for a more stable government in Dhaka before pushing forward with significant new trade initiatives. In the meantime, Yunus’s administration is expected to maintain existing trade agreements, but the scope for expanding economic relations remains uncertain until a permanent government takes over.
Another factor to consider in the India-Bangladesh relationship is the growing influence of China in the region. Under Sheikh Hasina, Bangladesh managed to strike a delicate balance between India and China, accepting significant investments from both countries. China has invested billions of dollars in Bangladesh’s infrastructure projects, including the Padma Bridge and several power plants. While India has viewed China’s growing presence in Bangladesh with caution, it has continued to maintain strong ties with Dhaka, knowing that it cannot afford to cede too much influence to Beijing in its own backyard.
The Yunus government has yet to clearly define its foreign policy stance regarding China. Given Yunus’s global profile and his focus on economic development, it is possible that his administration will continue to welcome Chinese investments, especially if they contribute to Bangladesh’s infrastructure development. However, India will be closely monitoring how the interim government balances its relationships with both India and China. Should Bangladesh tilt too far towards Beijing, it could lead to strategic concerns for New Delhi, particularly in terms of regional security and India’s own aspirations for leadership in South Asia.
One of the more immediate concerns for India following the change in government is the uncertainty surrounding Bangladesh’s domestic political stability. Sheikh Hasina’s exit came amid rising political tensions and protests, some of which were fueled by allegations of corruption and authoritarianism. While the Yunus government is intended to be a caretaker administration leading up to the next general election, the political environment in Bangladesh remains fragile. Protests and strikes could disrupt normal governance, leading to delays in bilateral projects and cooperation with India.
Furthermore, India must also consider how the domestic political situation in Bangladesh will affect its larger geopolitical strategy in South Asia. Bangladesh, under Sheikh Hasina, was a key ally for India in regional groupings like the Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC) and the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC). The new interim government’s approach to regional diplomacy will be critical in determining whether Bangladesh remains a close partner in these multilateral forums, especially as India continues to navigate its complex relationships with neighboring countries like Pakistan and Sri Lanka.
In conclusion, the post-Hasina interim government of Dr. Muhammad Yunus presents both challenges and opportunities for India-Bangladesh relations. While the legacy of strong bilateral cooperation, especially in the areas of security and trade, is likely to continue, the temporary nature of the Yunus government raises questions about the long-term trajectory of the relationship. India will need to tread carefully, balancing its strategic interests in maintaining security cooperation and economic ties with Bangladesh, while also navigating the growing influence of China in the region. As Bangladesh heads toward its next general election, India will be watching closely to see whether the strong ties established under Sheikh Hasina can be sustained in the post-Hasina era.
The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect Coverpage’s editorial stance
