The decision by India to extend a visa to Sheikh Hasina, the former Prime Minister of Bangladesh, has sent ripples through the political corridors of South Asia. The development, which occurred shortly after Bangladesh’s interim government revoked her passport alongside those of 96 others, underscores the volatile nature of the political crisis in Bangladesh. The charges against Hasina stem from her alleged role in the July unrest, during which widespread protests were marred by claims of enforced disappearances and state violence. This move by India not only reflects its strategic priorities but also highlights the underlying tensions with Pakistan over their divergent positions on Sheikh Hasina’s political fate.
Sheikh Hasina, who served multiple terms as the Prime Minister of Bangladesh, was ousted earlier this year following mounting political unrest. Her administration faced growing criticism for alleged corruption, authoritarianism, and suppression of dissent. The turning point came in July when large-scale protests erupted across the country, fueled by accusations of human rights abuses, including the enforced disappearance of anti-government activists. The protests, marked by clashes between demonstrators and security forces, exposed deep fractures in Bangladeshi society.
In the aftermath of the unrest, the Bangladeshi military intervened, facilitating the establishment of an interim government. This administration, which vowed to bring accountability to those accused of abuses under Hasina’s rule, has since taken a hardline approach. The revocation of Hasina’s passport and the issuance of an arrest warrant by the International Crimes Tribunal (ICT) are part of these broader efforts to prosecute alleged wrongdoers.
India’s decision to extend a visa to Sheikh Hasina is a calculated move, reflecting its strategic interests in maintaining influence in Bangladesh. Under Hasina’s leadership, India-Bangladesh relations witnessed significant progress, particularly in areas such as trade, water sharing, counter-terrorism, and regional connectivity. Hasina’s alignment with India’s strategic goals made her a valuable ally in a region marked by competing influences from China and Pakistan.
By granting Hasina refuge, India sends a clear signal of its support for her, despite the interim government’s accusations against her. This move, however, comes with risks. The interim government may interpret India’s actions as interference in Bangladesh’s internal affairs, potentially straining bilateral relations. Moreover, India’s refusal to extradite Hasina in compliance with the ICT’s arrest warrant could further complicate its relationship with the current Bangladeshi leadership.
The political turmoil surrounding Sheikh Hasina has also reignited tensions between India and Pakistan. Pakistan has historically viewed Hasina’s government with suspicion, given her strong nationalist stance and her role in prosecuting individuals accused of war crimes during Bangladesh’s Liberation War in 1971. These trials, conducted under Hasina’s administration, were widely seen as a means of holding Pakistan accountable for its role in the atrocities of the war.
In the current scenario, Pakistan appears to be leveraging the crisis in Bangladesh to counter India’s influence in the region. Islamabad has openly criticized India’s decision to support Hasina, framing it as an example of New Delhi’s hegemonic ambitions in South Asia. Some analysts believe that Pakistan is quietly backing factions opposed to Hasina, viewing her ouster as an opportunity to improve its ties with the interim government in Dhaka.
This rivalry is emblematic of the broader competition between India and Pakistan for influence in Bangladesh. While India has historically been a key ally of the Awami League, Pakistan has sought to strengthen its ties with other political factions, particularly those critical of India’s role in the region.
The arrest warrant issued by Bangladesh’s International Crimes Tribunal adds another layer of complexity to the situation. The ICT’s directive for Hasina to appear before the tribunal by February 12 places India in a difficult position. Extraditing Hasina would not only damage India’s credibility as a supporter of democratic values but also risk alienating her supporters in Bangladesh, who view her as a champion of justice and progress.
On the other hand, refusing to comply with the ICT’s order could strain India’s relationship with the interim government, potentially jeopardizing bilateral cooperation on key issues such as border security, trade, and water sharing. This diplomatic tightrope highlights the challenges India faces in balancing its strategic interests with its commitment to democratic principles.
The crisis in Bangladesh has far-reaching implications for regional stability. China, which has been steadily increasing its influence in South Asia, may seek to exploit the situation to strengthen its ties with the interim government in Dhaka. Beijing’s growing presence in Bangladesh, particularly through investments in infrastructure and energy projects, poses a strategic challenge for India, which views Bangladesh as a key partner in its efforts to counter Chinese influence in the region.
At the same time, Pakistan’s involvement in the Hasina affair underscores the broader geopolitical rivalry between Islamabad and New Delhi. By supporting factions opposed to Hasina, Pakistan aims to weaken India’s influence in Bangladesh and bolster its own standing in the region. This dynamic highlights the intricate web of alliances and rivalries that shape South Asian politics.
The allegations against Sheikh Hasina and her government, particularly those related to enforced disappearances and human rights abuses, have drawn international attention. Human rights organizations have called for an independent investigation into the July unrest, emphasizing the need for accountability and justice. However, the interim government’s actions, including the revocation of Hasina’s passport and the crackdown on opposition figures, have raised concerns about the erosion of democratic norms in Bangladesh.
India’s decision to provide refuge to Hasina can be seen as a tacit acknowledgment of these concerns. By offering her a safe haven, India positions itself as a defender of democratic values and human rights, even as it navigates the complexities of regional politics.
India’s extension of a visa to Sheikh Hasina is a significant development in the context of Bangladesh’s ongoing political crisis. This decision reflects India’s strategic priorities but also underscores the challenges it faces in managing its relationship with the interim government in Dhaka. The issue of Sheikh Hasina’s extradition, coupled with the broader implications of her political persecution, will undoubtedly shape the future of India-Bangladesh relations and influence the regional balance of power.
As the situation continues to unfold, India must carefully navigate the competing demands of strategic interests, democratic values, and regional stability. The handling of Sheikh Hasina’s case will serve as a litmus test for India’s ability to balance these priorities while maintaining its leadership role in South Asia.
The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect Coverpage’s editorial stance.
