Afghanistan has long been a country marked by continuous migration, with its citizens often seeking refuge in neighboring nations like Iran and Pakistan. The ebb and flow of Afghan citizens across these borders reflects the ongoing political instability, economic hardship, and security concerns in the region. Over the past week alone, 50,639 Afghans left their homeland for neighboring Iran and Pakistan, while simultaneously a significant number of Afghans returned to their country from these two nations. This complex migration dynamic highlights not only the deep-rooted challenges within Afghanistan but also the pressures faced by Iran and Pakistan, which have long hosted large Afghan refugee populations.
Of those who left Afghanistan in the last week, 21,169 individuals headed to Iran, while 29,470 chose Pakistan as their destination. On the other hand, 43,376 people returned to Afghanistan from Iran, and 28,148 came back from Pakistan. This data reveals an ongoing pattern where, even as many Afghans seek to leave the country, a sizable number also return home, perhaps hoping for better prospects or due to deteriorating living conditions in host countries.
Economic hardship has been a primary driver of this migration. The International Organization for Migration (IOM) reported that 69 percent of those departing for Iran cited economic reasons as their main motivation. With Afghanistan’s economy in shambles following years of conflict, foreign intervention, and internal political turmoil, it is no surprise that many Afghans see no other option but to seek opportunities abroad. Iran, despite its own economic struggles, remains an attractive destination for Afghan laborers due to the relative availability of jobs in construction, agriculture, and other sectors. However, this migration wave poses challenges for both the migrants and the Iranian government, which is grappling with its own set of economic sanctions and financial pressures.
Pakistan, on the other hand, has historically been a major destination for Afghan refugees, particularly during the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in the 1980s and the subsequent civil wars. At one point, Pakistan was home to more than 3 million Afghan refugees, making it one of the largest host nations for displaced Afghans. Currently, an estimated 1.3 to 1.5 million registered Afghan refugees remain in Pakistan, with an additional 800,000 to 1 million undocumented Afghans also residing in the country. This large refugee population has been both a source of economic strain and a focal point of political tension within Pakistan.
Recently, the Pakistani government has taken a harder stance on Afghan refugees, particularly those without legal documentation. A recent drive by the Pakistani authorities sought to expel Afghan nationals who lacked the necessary papers to stay in the country. This crackdown, which began in late 2023, followed mounting security concerns and economic pressures within Pakistan. The government justified its actions by citing the need to safeguard national security and reduce the strain on its resources. However, the move drew criticism from international human rights organizations, which argued that forcibly repatriating refugees without proper legal protections violated international conventions on refugees.
This forced repatriation effort has had a significant impact on the Afghan refugee population in Pakistan. According to official estimates, more than 150,000 Afghans were repatriated from Pakistan in the past few months alone, many of them under duress. These individuals often returned to Afghanistan with little more than what they could carry, facing uncertain futures in a country still reeling from decades of conflict. For many, the prospect of returning home to an unstable and impoverished Afghanistan was daunting, but they had little choice in the face of growing hostility in Pakistan.
The political and security implications of this migration pattern are multifaceted. For Afghanistan, the return of large numbers of citizens from abroad creates additional challenges for the already fragile state. The influx of returnees puts pressure on the government to provide basic services, such as housing, healthcare, and education, all of which are severely underfunded and inadequately equipped to handle the current population, let alone a growing one. Furthermore, many of these returnees come back to regions that are still contested by various factions, including the Taliban and remnants of other insurgent groups. This can exacerbate the security situation in parts of the country, as returning refugees may find themselves caught between rival forces.
In Pakistan, the expulsion of Afghan refugees without proper documentation reflects broader concerns about national security and internal stability. The presence of a large Afghan population has long been linked to concerns about terrorism and insurgency, particularly in the border regions of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan. Pakistani authorities argue that some elements within the Afghan refugee community have ties to militant groups, and this has been used to justify the government’s recent actions. However, the blanket targeting of Afghan refugees, many of whom have lived in Pakistan for decades, risks alienating a community that has historically contributed to the country’s labor force and economy.
The ongoing migration crisis also has regional implications. The strained relationship between Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Iran is exacerbated by the movement of people across their borders. While both Pakistan and Iran have borne the brunt of Afghanistan’s refugee crisis, their respective domestic issues—ranging from economic instability to political unrest—mean that neither country is in a position to continue absorbing large numbers of Afghans indefinitely. This places Afghanistan in a precarious position, as it must now contend with both an outflow of its citizens and an influx of returnees, many of whom have no choice but to return to a country where jobs are scarce, security is fragile, and the future remains uncertain.
As Afghanistan continues to grapple with its internal challenges, the migration of its citizens—both those leaving and those returning—will remain a key issue. The delicate balance between these movements underscores the broader regional dynamics at play, where economic hardship, political instability, and security concerns intertwine to create a complex and often volatile situation.
The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect Coverpage’s editorial stance
