The Islamabad High Court (IHC) was informed on Friday that the proposal to exchange Dr. Aafia Siddiqui for Shakeel Afridi was not implementable, dealing a major blow to efforts aimed at securing her release from a US prison. The federal government’s response was given during a hearing of a petition seeking Aafia’s repatriation, presided over by Justice Sardar Ijaz Ishaq Khan. The decision has once again highlighted the longstanding and politically charged nature of her case, which has been a source of diplomatic friction between Pakistan and the United States for over a decade.
Aafia Siddiqui, a Pakistani neuroscientist, was convicted in 2010 by a US federal court on charges of attempting to kill American soldiers and FBI agents while in custody in Afghanistan. According to the prosecution, she was found in 2008 in Ghazni, Afghanistan, carrying documents related to potential terrorist attacks, including sketches of the Empire State Building and chemical weapon formulas. The US authorities claim that while in detention, she grabbed a soldier’s rifle and opened fire, although she hit no one. Despite conflicting accounts and a lack of forensic evidence proving she fired a weapon, she was sentenced to 86 years in prison, a decision widely condemned in Pakistan as excessive and politically motivated.
Shakeel Afridi, by contrast, is viewed as both a traitor and a hero, depending on the perspective. A Pakistani doctor, Afridi ran a fake vaccination campaign in Abbottabad in 2011 to help the CIA confirm the presence of Osama bin Laden. His efforts were instrumental in the US Navy SEAL operation that led to bin Laden’s killing. Following the raid, Afridi was arrested by Pakistani authorities, not for his involvement with the CIA but on charges of colluding with a banned militant group, Lashkar-e-Islam. He was sentenced to 33 years in prison, later reduced to 23 years. His detention has been a major point of contention between Washington and Islamabad, with multiple US officials, including former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, calling for his release and linking his case to US-Pakistan relations.
The US government has consistently opposed any prisoner swap involving Aafia and Afridi. Successive US administrations have maintained that Aafia’s conviction was fair and that she remains a security risk. In contrast, Washington considers Afridi a valuable ally in the fight against terrorism and has even offered financial incentives to Pakistan for his release. Former US President Donald Trump reportedly considered securing Afridi’s freedom a priority, while several US lawmakers have advocated for cutting military aid to Pakistan unless he is freed.
Pakistan’s response to Aafia Siddiqui’s case has varied under different governments. During General Pervez Musharraf’s tenure, she disappeared under mysterious circumstances in 2003, allegedly abducted in Karachi and handed over to the US. Musharraf later admitted that his government had handed over numerous Pakistani citizens to the US during the early years of the War on Terror, though he denied direct involvement in Aafia’s case. Her reappearance in US custody in 2008 led to widespread protests in Pakistan, with many accusing the Musharraf regime of selling its own citizens.
Under Nawaz Sharif’s government (2013-2017), the issue of Aafia’s release was raised diplomatically. Reports emerged of backchannel negotiations, and in 2016, Pakistani officials reportedly considered a swap involving Afridi. However, US authorities firmly rejected the idea. Sharif’s administration faced pressure from both Washington and domestic political groups, particularly Islamist parties, which saw Aafia as a victim of US aggression. Despite repeated assurances that the government was working on her case, no tangible progress was made.
When Imran Khan assumed office in 2018, expectations were high that he would take decisive action on Aafia’s case. Khan had previously voiced strong criticism of the way her trial was conducted and had even called for her repatriation while he was in opposition. His government reportedly explored legal avenues to bring her back, and Foreign Minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi raised the matter in discussions with US officials. However, the Trump administration remained firm in its stance, and no breakthrough was achieved. Some reports suggested that a prisoner exchange was under serious consideration, but Afridi’s strategic importance to the US meant that Washington was unwilling to compromise.
The current government’s statement before the IHC reaffirms that securing Aafia’s release remains a diplomatic deadlock. The federal government argued that the US had rejected all past proposals for a swap, making such an exchange unfeasible. This position has been met with disappointment by Aafia’s supporters, including her family, who have long campaigned for her return. Her sister, Dr. Fowzia Siddiqui, has repeatedly accused the Pakistani government of failing to take meaningful steps to secure her release, claiming that successive administrations have merely paid lip service to the issue without applying real pressure on Washington.
The case has also drawn sharp reactions from Pakistan’s political parties. Jamaat-e-Islami has been one of the most vocal proponents of Aafia’s release, frequently organizing protests and demanding that the government prioritize her repatriation. Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) has used the case to criticize its political opponents, arguing that the PML-N and PPP governments failed to protect Pakistani citizens. However, PTI itself was unable to secure her release during its tenure. Meanwhile, the PML-N and PPP have taken a more measured stance, recognizing the diplomatic difficulties involved and preferring to address the matter through diplomatic channels rather than public confrontation.
Aafia’s legal team has been critical of the conditions she faces in prison. Clive Stafford Smith, a human rights lawyer who has followed her case, has described her incarceration as inhumane, citing reports of prolonged solitary confinement, mental and physical abuse, and limited access to legal counsel. “She has suffered greatly, and her imprisonment is a miscarriage of justice,” Stafford Smith stated in a 2021 interview. Other advocates argue that the lack of transparent evidence in her trial should have warranted a more lenient sentence, if not an outright acquittal.
Despite repeated appeals from Pakistani officials and human rights organizations, the US remains unwavering in its position. The political cost of releasing Afridi is too high for Pakistan’s security establishment, while the US sees no reason to revisit Aafia’s case. This has left her supporters frustrated, as they continue to push for a resolution that seems increasingly unlikely.
The collapse of the latest swap proposal is another setback in a saga that has lasted nearly two decades. For Aafia Siddiqui, the hope of returning to Pakistan fades with each passing year. For Shakeel Afridi, the prospect of an eventual release remains uncertain, with Pakistan’s establishment unlikely to forgive his role in the bin Laden operation. And for the governments of both countries, the case remains a thorny diplomatic issue, where political considerations far outweigh humanitarian concerns.
As long as these geopolitical calculations persist, Aafia’s fate will remain unchanged, caught between two nations unwilling to reach a compromise. Her supporters, however, vow to continue their struggle, insisting that justice for Aafia Siddiqui is a cause they will not abandon.
The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect Coverpage’s editorial stance.
