By Dr. Moonis Ahmar
On March 10, it was like a bombshell for Israel when Iran and Saudi Arabia agreed to mend fences under the mediation of China. The United States gave a cautious response to trilateral announcement, but one is sceptical about the smooth sailing of Iran-Saudi normalization process because of their age-old cleavages. Since 2016 till March 10, 2023, both Iran and Saudi Arabia were arch adversaries much to the delight of Israel and the United States when Riyadh cut off diplomatic relations with Tehran.
A ‘great leap forward’ in Chinese foreign policy took place when it acted as a bridge in normalizing Iran-Saudi relations and persuaded the two arch adversaries to mend fences. How China is following ‘soft power’ policy by focusing on trade, aid, technology, diplomacy and geo-economics instead of using hard power to deepen its influence is not difficult to gauge. The Middle East and the Persian Gulf regions pose a great challenge to China because of its heavy dependence on oil and by using multilateral diplomacy Beijing intends to secure its energy requirements from oil rich Gulf sheikhdoms in the years to come.
Saudi-Iranian conflict triggered when on January 2, 2016 Saudi Arabia executed a prominent Shi’ite cleric Sheikh Nimr Al-Nimr which led to widespread demonstration against Riyadh in several Iranian cities, leading to the termination of diplomatic relations between the two countries. The UAE followed Saudi Arabia and cut off diplomatic relations with Tehran. Change of heart in Saudi policy vis-à-vis Iran took place when Crown Prince Mohammad Bin Salman (MBS) expressed readiness to have peace and normal relations with neighbouring countries, including Yemen. Suspicions and mistrust which overshadowed Iran-Saudi relations since the outbreak of Iranian revolution in 1979 and the surge of ‘Shia crescent’ had to be managed and controlled so as to unleash the process of normal relations with Tehran. Following Saudi Arabia, the U.A.E also restored diplomatic relations with Iran.
Several questions are raised reflecting surprise and euphoria after Iran and Saudi Arabia as a result of Chinese facilitation had an historic handshake on March 10. Will the Saudi-Iranian thaw in relations help establish peace in Yemen? What will be the durability of Saudi-Iranian mending of fences because of deep rooted historical discords between the two countries? How China will deal with American and Israeli apprehensions at Saudi-Iranian thaw? How will China’s mediation in managing Saudi-Iranian conflict provide strategic depth in the Middle East?
In a news item, “Middle East Diplomacy: The Less Bad Old Days” published in London Economist issue of March 18, it is argued that: “On March 10th, the two old foes abruptly agreed to end their seven-year rupture. The deal became the subject of excited headlines in the Middle East and America. For the former, it seemed to signal an end to a long-running and ruinous proxy war. The latter was less interested in the substance than the venue: it was signed not in a regional capital but in China, a country that had hitherto played a significant role in the Middle East’s messy diplomacy.” It is for the first time in Chinese diplomacy imbued with soft power that it influenced Iran and Saudi Arabia which for years remained in the influence of the U.S. strategic and security policies.
On April 6, Iran and Saudi Arabia formally announced to re-establish diplomatic relations, establish consulates in Mashhad and Jeddah and to restore trade and travel ties. This brings into picture a fundamental question that how far the two countries will be able to deal with issues which for years led to rupture in their relations? Will Saudi Arabia, along with the UAE and other GCC member countries stop blaming Iran of sponsoring its supported elements in Yemen, Syria and Lebanon? It seems a change of heart has also taken place in Tehran where a realization of peace with Arab Gulf countries to deal with U.S-Israeli nexus led to transformation in Iranian policy.
Wang Yi, a member of the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China (CPC), presides over the closing meeting of the talks between a Saudi delegation and an Iranian delegation in Beijing.
According to a news report titled, “Middle East Diplomacy: The Less Bad Old Days” published in March 18th issue of London Economist, “Saudi Arabia and Iran have spent years talking about reconciliation. Such talks have gained new urgency in recent months, largely because both countries are exhausted. The Saudis have failed in their major foreign policy gambits over the past decade, whether trying to overthrow Mr. Assad or dethrone the Houthis. Saudi Arabia’s priority is to extract itself from its war in Yemen, launched in March 2015. Eight years and hundreds of thousands of deaths later, the Houthis still control much of the country and the war has only pushed them closer to Iran”.
Conflict fatigue and genuine need on the part of Riyadh and Tehran to mend fences led to March 10 multilateral agreement giving a practical shape to Iran-Saudi reconciliation – a win-win situation for both former adversaries. Following mending of fences with Tehran, Saudi Arabia and Yemen decided to ceasefire and proceed for peace in their relations.
Nevertheless, Iran-Saudi mending of fences in the light of Chinese diplomacy needs to be examined from three angles. First, since long Beijing, because of its energy and other strategic interests in the Middle East, wanted to play a pivotal role in the region. Since, mediating in Palestinian-Israeli conflict seemed difficult because of established American role; the challenge of facilitating in Iran-Saudi conflict management provided a valuable opportunity for China. China’s diplomacy to mend Saudi-Iranian fences got a boost on April 6 when in Beijing a joint statement was issued after talks between the Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian and his Saudi counterpart Prince Faisal bin Farhan in which it was stated that: “The two sides emphasized the importance of following up on the implementation of the Beijing Agreement and its activation in a way that that expands mutual trust and the fields of cooperation and helps create security, stability and prosperity in the region.” The signing ceremony was also attended by the Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang who lauded breakthrough in relations between the two former adversaries.
Now China plans to deepen its economic, trade and energy ties with both Iran and Saudi Arabia along with other Gulf States which will be a matching response to an age-old American deep rooted role in the Middle East. Consequently, along with Russia, China plans to neutralize the U.S strategic and military presence in the oil rich Gulf sheikhdoms. Second, ending Saudi-Iranian proxy war which was going on since 1979 is a major development because the beneficiaries of that armed conflict were Israel and the United States. It means, both Riyadh and Tehran have understood huge costs of their conflict particularly in Yemen and elsewhere so that sectarian schism which damaged peace in the Gulf and larger Middle East will diminish. Pakistan will be a beneficiary of perceived termination of Saudi-Iranian sectarian conflict because since 1979 both Iran and Saudi Arabia were involved in patronizing their sectarian groups thus fomenting sectarian violence. Similarly, countries like Yemen, Syria and Lebanon where Riyadh and Tehran since long were involved in proxy war will now cease their involvement.
Finally, one should not underestimate the potential role of Israel and the United States in destabilizing Saudi-Iranian mending of fences. Fears about the Iranian nuclear programme as a threat to Saudi and Gulf interests in the Middle East cannot be neutralized. One needs to understand some basic realities which in the last four decades or so caused rupture in Saudi-Iranian relations which cannot be just eradicated with trilateral agreement mediated by China. The threat of ‘Shia crescent’ in the Middle East patronized by Iran still looms large. Unless, Iran and Saudi Arabia exterminate enemy images against each other not much can be done to create a long-lasting goodwill and peace between the two neighbours. There are elements in the UAE and Bahrain who are still suspicious of Iranian agenda of patronizing Shia groups since long. Furthermore, Egypt, also pursued anti-Iranian policy and shared perceptions with Riyadh and other Gulf countries about Tehran’s nuclear weapon’s programme and its role in fomenting ‘Shia crescent’ in the Middle East.
To sum up, it is too early to pass a judgment about Saudi-Iranian mending of fences because still there are unresolved issues which triggered conflict between the two countries. Unless positive change occurs at the policy making and at the grassroots’ level diminishing enemy images, the prevailing euphoria emanating from March 16 and April 6 mending of fences may be short lived.
The writer is Meritorious Professor of International Relations and former Dean Faculty of Social Sciences, University of Karachi. He can be reached at amoonis@hotmail.com
Courtesy: South Asia
http://www.southasia.com.pk/2023/04/30/change-of-heart/
The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect Coverpage’s editorial stance.
