Elections in the Indian-administered region of Jammu and Kashmir have long been a subject of intense debate, political maneuvering, and widespread public interest. Set against a backdrop of political tensions, security concerns, and international scrutiny, the upcoming elections in the region are critical not only for the local population but also for the central government in India, led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).
Jammu and Kashmir is all set to go to polls on September 18, 25 and October 1, 2024, as the Election Commission of India (ECI) announced poll dates on August 16. Results will be announced on October 8, along with Haryana assembly results. There is a rising sense of excitement surrounding these elections, as people focus on the key candidates, the role of various political parties, and the crucial issues that will impact the results.
Pakistan has consistently opposed the elections in Indian-administered Jammu and Kashmir, viewing them as illegitimate and part of India’s strategy to assert control over the disputed region. Islamabad maintains that any election held under Indian rule lacks credibility, as it does not address the broader issue of self-determination for the Kashmiri people. Pakistan continues to call for international intervention, arguing that the elections cannot substitute for a plebiscite under United Nations resolutions to decide the region’s future.
The political landscape in Jammu and Kashmir is unique due to its history, geography, and the longstanding dispute over its status. Since the revocation of Article 370 in 2019, which granted the region special autonomy, the elections will be the first significant democratic exercise where voters in the region will directly express their opinion on the political direction they want Jammu and Kashmir to take. While the BJP hopes to solidify its presence in the region, regional parties like the National Conference (NC) and the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) remain powerful forces, presenting challenges to the BJP’s ambitions.
The contesting leaders in this election are notable figures who have shaped the region’s political narrative for decades. Omar Abdullah, vice president of the National Conference, and Mehbooba Mufti, president of the PDP, are two of the most prominent figures. Both come from political dynasties that have had a longstanding influence in Jammu and Kashmir. Omar Abdullah is the son of Farooq Abdullah, a former chief minister of the region and a dominant figure in Kashmiri politics. Similarly, Mehbooba Mufti is the daughter of Mufti Mohammad Sayeed, a former chief minister who played a significant role in forging alliances between Kashmiri regional parties and national parties like the BJP.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi, however, has taken a direct shot at these political dynasties, claiming that their entrenched presence has stifled the region’s growth and undermined efforts to improve security and governance. In his remarks, Modi argued that political families in Jammu and Kashmir have destroyed the region and prevented the rise of new leadership. He claimed that dynastic politics, dominated by families like the Abdullahs and Muftis, has led to corruption, cronyism, and a lack of accountability, making it difficult to bring about meaningful development and security improvements in the Valley.
Modi’s comments have ignited a fierce debate, with Omar Abdullah of the National Conference responding that the Prime Minister should focus on the “deteriorating” security situation in the region rather than attacking political families. Abdullah pointed out that, despite the central government’s efforts to portray Jammu and Kashmir as more stable since the revocation of Article 370, the ground reality suggests otherwise. Security concerns remain high, and incidents of militancy and violence continue to pose challenges to both the state machinery and civilians. For Abdullah and other regional leaders, Modi’s comments are seen as an attempt to deflect attention from the government’s failure to bring lasting peace and prosperity to the region.
The BJP’s position in Jammu and Kashmir is multifaceted. On one hand, it has made significant inroads in the Jammu region, where it enjoys a strong base of support. Many in Jammu, which is predominantly Hindu, view the BJP’s policies, particularly the abrogation of Article 370, as a positive step toward integrating the region more closely with India. However, in the Muslim-majority Kashmir Valley, the BJP faces stiff resistance from regional parties like the NC and PDP, who argue that the central government’s actions have eroded the autonomy and identity of Kashmiris.
The BJP has positioned itself as a party that is committed to development and security in Jammu and Kashmir, emphasizing that its policies are designed to bring long-term stability to the region. The party has also argued that the abrogation of Article 370 has paved the way for greater investment, infrastructure development, and job creation in Jammu and Kashmir. However, critics argue that the promised benefits have not materialized and that the region continues to struggle with high unemployment rates, economic stagnation, and an uncertain security environment.
Regional political parties like the NC and PDP, while critical of the BJP’s centralizing policies, are also navigating their own challenges. Both parties have historically alternated in power, often forming alliances with national parties to secure their position. However, the political landscape has shifted since the removal of Jammu and Kashmir’s special status. Many Kashmiris feel disillusioned with both the regional and national political establishment, leading to a sense of political apathy among some voters. Nonetheless, the NC and PDP remain powerful forces, particularly in the Kashmir Valley, and are likely to put up a strong fight against the BJP in the upcoming elections.
For Prime Minister Modi, the elections in Jammu and Kashmir are not just about winning seats—they are about validating the BJP’s broader political narrative of national integration and security. Modi has frequently portrayed the BJP as the only party capable of bringing peace and development to Jammu and Kashmir, often emphasizing the failures of regional political families to address the region’s underlying problems. By framing the election as a choice between dynastic politics and a new era of leadership, Modi hopes to sway voters in the region, particularly in areas like Jammu, where the BJP enjoys a solid base.
However, the security situation in the region remains a contentious issue. While the central government has claimed that the removal of Article 370 has reduced militancy and violence, incidents of insurgency continue to be reported. Moreover, the heavy military presence in the Valley and frequent crackdowns on political dissent have led to accusations of human rights abuses, further complicating the narrative of improved security.
As the elections draw nearer, the contest will not only be a test of the BJP’s political strategy in the region but also a referendum on the broader policies that have been implemented in Jammu and Kashmir since 2019. The outcome will likely have a lasting impact on the region’s political future, security dynamics, and relationship with the central government in New Delhi. While Modi’s comments on dynastic politics may resonate with some, the real challenge will be addressing the deep-rooted issues that continue to plague Jammu and Kashmir, including unemployment, political disenfranchisement, and the ongoing security crisis.
The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect Coverpage’s editorial stance
