Binoj Basnyat
Rival blocs in the making under China and the US are once again pointing to an evolving ‘communism vs democracy’ conflict
A significant body of reliable data suggests that Asia will reshape the world order in the 21st century.
A flurry of visits of prominent strategic figures and their statements point to a changing order, apart from some of the recent happenings.
Amid the Covid-19 pandemic, Russia, one of the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) accountable for economic stability and peaceful coexistence in the world, attacked Ukraine, citing ‘a threat to its national security’, purportedly from the US-led West.
This in itself was a strong enough indication of the importance of Asia in the global scheme of things.
In Asia, Southeast Asia is strategically viable and East Asia is geo-strategically vital, whereas South Asia, Central Asia and the Middle East are viable regions for expansion of influence for the formation of two power blocs’. These rival blocs under the global superpower US and emerging superpower China and Russia will, in all likelihood, engage in a fresh ideological conflict in the name of ‘communism’ versus ‘democracy’ for global supremacy using their hard, soft and smart power, marking the commencement of Cold War 2.0.
This bipolar conflict between Sino-Russian and the US-led Western camps stands as a geopolitical challenge for swing states, which form a majority in the comity of nations. They will have have to take sides by undermining their aspirations for stability, prosperity and coexistence through bilateral, trilateral, quadrilateral and multilateral regional or international organizational mechanisms, for or against what the West has been describing as the “rule-based international order”.
This strikes at the very core of the perception of neutrality espoused during the Cold War through the Non-Alignment Movement (NAM), which accounts for 60 percent of the UN member-states. Most of the 120 NAM member-states are from Africa and Asia, while another 19 nations are observers, apart from 10 organizations.
China’s scheme of world order
China, together with its ally Russia, has been making its presence felt in the global arena, especially in recent weeks. Together, the two countries are challenging the post-1945 international order marked by interventions and sanctions by reviving global institutions in their interest. In the wake of the Covid-19 pandemic, the war in Ukraine and increasing economic clout, there are fears that a rising China will overturn the US-dominated global order.
Taking cognizance of this, the US National Security Strategy has described China and Russia as competitors, apart from presenting a narrative of a world divided between democracies and autocracies, implying that those in the middle should be persuaded or pressured to choose sides. Whereas China’s real battle for supremacy is about understanding the differences of what China-led democracy and human rights means.
In this scheme of things, the middle powers aspiring to be influencers in global politics—Brazil, France, Germany, India, Indonesia, Japan, Russia, South Africa and Turkey—place themselves not as swing states. Nonetheless, they are having to appease both China and the US. India’s relationship with Russia and the West gives it a strategic opportunity to subside the challenge of China’s dominations in the region and branch out its rising volume of trade and defense dependability on Beijing.
Against this backdrop, notably, Chinese President XI Jingping and Japanese PM Fumio Kishida visited rival nations Russia, Ukraine and India at about the same time. These visits also highlight the significance of multilateralism, globalization and the shift in the global geostrategic environment.
The Economist noted that these events opened a window onto the ‘world according to Xi’. The visit of Xi has brought about not only formidable hostility but an opportunity for China and the European Union to work hand in hand for peace and economic revival in the region.
French President Emmanuel Macron and European Commission Chief Ursula von der Leyen are in China as part of a double-header diplomacy to end the war, reconnect with the world and revive French as well as European economies and safeguard the continent’s interests in the Indo-Pacific Region. Macron’s visit outlines “shared responsibility for peace and stability” in Ukraine. China, with its close relationship with Russia reaffirmed in recent days, can play a major role in bringing about peace. The White House said that Macron discussed his trip to China and support for Ukraine during a phone call with President Joe Biden with the hope to “obtain from the Chinese a contribution to the global effort of North-South solidarity” and to build “a common agenda” on climate and biodiversity.
In a speech at the World Economic Forum, EC Chief Leyen said future relations with China, the biggest trading partner with Europe, will focus on “de-risk not decoupling”. The EU leaders’ commitments clash as the visit coincides with a meeting between Taiwan President Tsai Ing-win and US House Speaker Kevin McCarthy in California. About the US-Taiwan engagement, Beijing said it will “closely monitor the situation and firmly defend national sovereignty and territorial integrity”, and warned McCarthy that he would be “playing with fire” by meeting Tsai.
An increasing presence of China in the Persian Gulf through Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, the entry of Saudi Arabia as an SCO observer state and its role as global truce broker—manifested through its role in re-establishing diplomatic relations between Tehran and Riyadh after seven years of bitter resentment—point at a concerted effort to change the ‘Middle Eastern disorder’. Various conflicts in the Middle East have, at their root, the power struggle between Iran and Saudi Arabia, flanked by Israel and the US. The re-establishment of diplomatic relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia is part of Chinese soft power projection in the Middle East, exhibited also through Xi’s visit to Riyadh in December 2022 and hosting the president of Iran in February.
The recent China visit of Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, the president of Brazil, Latin America’s largest trading partner, reflects on the two countries’ initiatives toward a new world order. President Lula’s recent visit, which follows his trips to Beijing in 2003 and in 2011 as president, comes as a fresh start after his predecessor Bolsonaro’s alienation in the international front—in a departure from Brazil’s image as a jewel of Latin American statecraft, a global climate leader and soft power heavyweight. The Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) and Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa (BRICS) are two sides of the same coin thrown for a beginning of a new monetary exchange and the collective defense mechanism. India and South Africa will not reject the approach as both nations are forging a multi-alignment foreign policy with democracy as a value-based political system.
Xi’s visit to India in July to attend the SCO conference is another attempt to re-establish cordial relationship between Modi and Xi. In Southeast Asia, Singapore has agreed with China to upgrade ties paving the way for hi-tech cooperation, reaffirming to uphold the rule-based multilateral trade system, ensure stable and smooth operation of the global supply chain, investment, the digital economy, food security, finance and aviation with water and environmental projects. This reflects a “desire to set the strategic direction and chart the development of bilateral relations going forward”.
In the meantime, Malaysia and China have agreed to negotiate over the ongoing territorial dispute in the South China Sea. Brunei, Malaysia, the Philippines, Taiwan and Vietnam have counterclaims over Beijing’s claim over the key waterway through which $3trn trade takes place annually. China does not recognise the arbitration decision of not having legal basis for Beijing’s claim.
Amid rising differences in Europe, negotiations are taking place in Southeast Asia with an improved relationship with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) with the main focus on the ASEAN-China Free Trade Area.
At the same time, tensions are building up in the immediate neighborhood of Nepal with China ‘renaming’ 11 places in Arunachal Pradesh in the Himalayas, bordering China and India. This isn’t the first time; similar events happened in 2017 and 2021 as well. The first border clash between China and India occurred on 15 June 2020, after a break of 45 years. Since then, frequent border intrusions have been taking place through infrastructure development, military deployments and capability enhancement. Amid rising tensions between the two Asian giants, the US State Department said: “Arunachal Pradesh is Indian territory and the US strongly opposes China’s unilateral attempts to advance territorial claims through incursions, be it in military or civilian, across the Line of Actual Control”.
Russia’s new foreign policy strategy identifies China and India as main allies. India and Russia maintained a close strategic, military, economic and diplomatic interaction during the Cold War. Both refer to this alliance as “unique and privileged”. Contradicting with the US and the West, China will also appeal to the voices of the Global South with preferences for reviving of NAM.
US and the West in the rivalry
More than a year into Russia’s war on Ukraine, the US has been the largest donor with close to $50bn in security, economic and humanitarian assistance. Western financial and military backing has been robust with an international coalition of partners, including the European Union and other members of the G7. The US is pushing the Group of Seven countries to take joint action against China if Beijing engages in economic coercion against the group’s partners.
The method of warfighting has changed, the method of backing and opposition are based on interests, not on international principles and law. For example, Russia has taken over the rotating presidency after 14 months of aggression, an arrest warrant being issued by the International Criminal Court for President Vladimir Putin and Moscow planning to deploy tactical nuclear weapons to neighboring Belarus. Russia also headed the presidency in February 2022 when Moscow launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine when the body was responsible for maintaining peace and combatting acts of international aggression. This in return is questioning the role of the UNSC, the UN’s most powerful organ. Ukraine Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba called Russia’s presidency of the UNSC a “slap in the face to the international community”. President Zelensky said it was time for a general overhaul of global institutions, including the UNSC.
Amid a rising influence of China in Southeast Asia, the sole superpower is not sitting back, with Washington and the Philippines announcing plans to expand the Enhanced Defence Cooperation Arrangement (EDCA) to comprise four new sites—Naval Base Camilo Osias in Santa Ana, Cagayan; Camp Melchor Dela Cruz in Gamu, Isabela; Balabac Island in Palawan; and Lal-lo Airport in Cagayan. This presence has strategic implications in the region and geostrategic outcomes in global politico diplomacy. A US Department of Defence press release issued on 3 April hailed it as a “big day for a core pillar of the US-Philippine alliance”, pointing that “four new EDCA sites will help us work together even more closely to meet the challenges we share.”
Also not to be lost is the fact that three countries—Japan, South Korea and the US—after five years, went on board on a joint anti-submarine exercise in the waters of Korean peninsula Lelu islands for a deterrence against growing threats from North Korea, a close ally of China.
Causing obvious unease for China, the Taiwanese President on her visit to the US said: “It is self-evident that the peace we have maintained and the democracy we have worked so hard to build face unprecedented challenges.” Echoing President Reagan’s catchphrase of “peace through strength”, she said that “we are stronger when we work together”, calling for greater US-Taiwan defense, trade and economic cooperation. McCarthy said the relations between Taipei and Washington had “never been stronger”, indicating US bipartisan support for the move.
“NATO’s door is open to more cooperation if India seeks that, NATO is more than happy to sit down anytime with India” said Ambassador Julianne Smith, US envoy to NATO in an informal exchange with Indian counterparts. But the fact is that joint defense exercises with most of the NATO members are proceeding in the Indo-Pacific Region, whether it is in the continental or maritime by the super, global, emerging, rising or small powers. It is just a matter of a short notice and arrangements that will permit for NATO to arrive at the IPR.
Conclusion
Some of the key factors underpinning the current global geostrategic environment point that the world order is shifting. Sources of grievance and conflict have been fortified by national interests rather than principles and values. War and peace have been prioritized when questions are arising for the sphere of influence and role that powers can play in global politics. There is a division regarding the “rules-based order and democracy”.
Rival blocs in the making under China and the US are once again pointing to an evolving “communism vs democracy” conflict. The challenges facing Asia and events of strategic significance happening in the continent have become a matter of concern for not only Europe, but the whole world.
The entry of Saudi Arabia in the SCO as a partner in the political-military forum led by Beijing and Moscow is significant, though the regional rivalry between Saudi Arabia and Iran is likely to continue despite Beijing’s mediation. Nevertheless, China has managed to bring Washington’s ally into its orbit changing the strategic dynamics of the Middle East security architecture and the much-needed resources at its own backyard.
The main focus of India’s geostrategic narrative is Tibet, Southeast Asians and the US. China will build a second narrative of smaller nations with nationalism of Bhutan, Nepal, Sikkim in the Himalayas in addition the Maldives and Sri Lanka in the maritime and Cambodia, Laos and Vietnam in Southeast Asia.
Summing up, the projection of global power—hard, soft or smart—will shift to the Indo-Pacific Region, with the US-China rivalry fueling it.
The author is a Strategic Analyst, Major General (Retd) of the Nepali Army, and is associated with Rangsit University, Thailand
Source: The Annapurna Express
The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect Coverpage’s editorial stance
