After closing the week flat at $573.60 per 10 grams in the international market due to a 0.43 percent surge in the last session, gold’s near-term bias remains tilted firmly in favour of bears.
However, the price of 10 grams gold in Pakistan increased from Rs101,400 to Rs102,100 during the last week, up 0.69 percent. The appreciation in local gold price was mainly due to the rupee’s depreciation during the week; otherwise, the yellow metal is on course to register its first annual decline in three years. The US dollar appreciated from PKR176.77 to PKR177.71 during the aforementioned period.
According to experts, traders are unsure how gold would react to another upside surprise this time around after Friday’s price action. If demand for inflation protection dominates, gold could be headed back to weekly highs and its 200 daily moving average (DMA); otherwise, gold could be headed under recent lows in the $1,760s.
They said that gold is on course to register its first annual decline in three years, as headwinds from rising US real yields may result in a bearish tilt to gold’s medium-term outlook, rather than a complete reversal of the long-term uptrend, that was mainly due to the coronavirus effects on the market and policy rates.
They said that gold still trades at a premium over fair value versus treasury inflation-protected security (TIPS) due to broadening inflationary pressure and perhaps incorporating some risk premium from the uncertainties around the omicron variant and geopolitical risks in eastern Europe. They were of the view that inflation will gradually slow next year, while treasury yields will finally rise as global liquidity conditions gradually tighten. This should result in real yields starting to rise, and as a result, weigh on gold prices, they added.
From a technical perspective, gold has been oscillating in a familiar range for the past few weeks. Given the recent sharp pullback from a multi-month high, around the $1,877 per ounce, the range-bound price action can still be categorised as a bearish consolidation phase. Again, spot prices have repeatedly failed to find acceptance above a technically significant 200-day simple moving average (SMA), which suggests that the near-term bias remains tilted firmly in favour of bearish traders.
A convincing break through the $1,773-72 area may bring the prices down to the $1,762 region. Some follow-through selling below the $1,759-58 zone will confirm a fresh bearish breakdown and drag gold prices further towards the next relevant support near the $1,750 level.
On the flip side, any subsequent move up might continue to confront stiff resistance near the $1,792-93 region (200-DMA). The mentioned barrier coincides with 100-day SMA and is closely followed by the $1,800 round-figure mark. A sustained strength beyond has the potential to lift spot prices to the next relevant resistance near the $1,810-15 supply zone en-route the $1,832-34 horizontal barrier. The latter should act as a key pivotal point for short-term traders.
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